Happy new year!
I hope you and your family had a safe and happy Christmas and New Year's season.
On our end, this was the first year in 3 that we had everyone together. It was a hoot! It was great to take some time off and enjoy being together.
I missed last week's post because of the festivities but we're back on the wagon this week. I look forward to writing this blog week in and week out throughout 2023.
I want to use this week's post to reflect on 2022 and look forward to 2023.
2022 was a challenging year for real estate. I think a lot of people learned a lot about the market this past year. Especially young people. This was their first taste of what a downturn can look like. I include myself in that group.
Here's what I learned this year:
1.) Interest rates are a strong lever. The rate hikes we saw this year had a dramatic impact on prices and the pace of sales. It's one thing to understand how that relationship works. It's another to experience it in real life. To watch your variable rate rise. To feel those effects on your household's budget. The awareness of these effects is something to carry forward.
2.) Even in a falling market homes do sell. The key variable: price. It cures all. But you have to get it right the first time. If you don't, you'll chase the market downwards.
3.) You can't shy away from doing the right things when listing your home. Things like painting, staging, and photography become even more important in a downturn. In any market, the goal is for your home to stand out. It's even more important in a falling market.
4.) There are significant opportunities during a downturn. I'm confident we'll look back in 5-10 years and today's prices will seem like steep discounts. Upsizers, first-time buyers and investors were the groups that benefitted the most this past year. You have to be able to recognize the opportunities though.
5.) Emergency funds are so important. Especially for young families. Having 3-6 months in savings can be so reassuring in times like these. It's the safety net that can help you weather these storms and help you sleep at night.
Looking ahead to 2023 here's what I am expecting.
The Bank of Canada is expected to meet 8 times this year with the dates as follows.
January 25
March 8
April 12
June 7
July 12
September 6
October 25
December 6
I do expect rates to rise again at January's meeting. December's inflation report did not show much of a change. So they've got good reason to hike again.
I do think we will see the rate increases stop at some point this year. I do not think prices will rise at that point. It will take rates falling for that to happen. I'm not sure we see that this calendar year.
For sellers of properties that won't be followed by a purchase, I'd plan on waiting past 2023 to sell. Rent it if you can and wait for things to swing up. We are seeing historic rents after all, which makes renting even more appealing.
For those looking to sell AND buy, you shouldn't be afraid to explore that this year. In many cases, the delta between the value of the home you're selling and the one you're buying has shrunk. Especially for upsizers, that move is cheaper this year than last.
Investors are the group that should look at being more active this year. Any investment that looks appealing at these rates is going to be a grand slam once rates stabilize. Learn from experience though and build contingencies for different future scenarios.
Bottom line for sellers: Get your home ready now so it's ready to go. Keep an eye on market news, inflation data, and interest rate news. That's all we have to go on until the real estate market gets going and gives us some data to look at. I doubt it'll be a banner year for sellers BUT it doesn't mean you shouldn't sell. It all depends on what opportunities that sale may open up for you.
Bottom line for buyers: I think this year more than last year will present great opportunities. Work with a mortgage agent who can build out different scenarios for you. Don't overextend yourself. Have an emergency fund when you buy to help weather any storms.
That's it for this week. Onto week 16 next week.
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Have a great day!
Aurora Freehold
*Prices based on Last 4 Weeks Running Average
Average price Detached (24 sales): $1,396,192
Median price (24 sales): $1,240,000
Average Days on Market: 20
Sales in the past week: 3
Average Price Semi-Detached (2 sales):$1,150,000
Median Price (2 sales): $1,150,000
Average Days on Market: 10
Sales in the past week: 1
Average Price Townhome (4 sales): $993,000
Median Price (4 sales): $982,500
Average Days on Market: 13
Sales in the past week: 0
Total firm sales in the past week: 10
Current Listings: 66
Months of Inventory: 1.00 (less than 4 indicates seller's market)
Aurora Condo/Condo Townhomes
*Prices based on Last 4 Weeks Running Average
Average Price (4 sales): $776,667
Median Price (4 sales): $640,000
Average Days on Market: 32
Sales in the past week: 2
Current Listings: 20
Months of Inventory: 1.42 (less than 4 indicates a seller's market)
Richmond Hill Freehold
*Prices based on Last Weeks Average
Average price Detached: $2,001,600
Median price: $1,810,000
Average Days on Market: 23
Sales in the past week: 10
Average Price Semi-Detached: $884,500
Median Price: $884,500
Average Days on Market: 8
Sales in the past week: 0
Average Price Townhome: $1,244,600
Median Price Townhome: $1,270,000
Average Days on Market: 18
Sales in the past week: 0
Total firm sales in the past week: 10
Current Listings: 215
Months of Inventory: 1.60 (less than 4 indicates seller's market)
Richmond Hill Condo/Condo Townhomes
*Prices based on Last Weeks Average
Average Price: $621,300
Median Price: $607,500
Average Days on Market: 28
Sales in the past week: 10
Current Listings: 150
Months of Inventory: 2.65 (less than 4 indicates a seller's market)
Newmarket Freehold
*Prices based on last 4 weeks Running Average
Average price Detached (39 sales): $1,196,025
Median price (39 sales): $1,138,000
Average Days on Market: 22
Sales in the past week: 4
Average Price Semi-Detached (4 sales): $871,250
Median Price (4 sales): $897,500
Average Days on Market: 8
Sales in the past week: 0
Average Price Townhome (8 sales): $911,125
Median Price (8 sales): $879,500
Average Days on Market: 14
Sales in the past week: 1
Total firm sales in the past week: 10
Current Listings: 103
Months of Inventory: 1.23 (less than 4 indicates seller's market)
Newmarket Condo/Condo Townhomes
*Prices based on last 4 Weeks Running Average
Average Price (9 sales): $725,933
Median Price (9 sales): $720,000
Average Days on Market: 21
Sales in the past week: 1
Current Listings: 14
Months of Inventory: 1.27 (less than 4 indicates a seller's market)
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